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Always Stand on the Side of the Market

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Guest profile:

Aaron Hill, who completed a bachelor's degree in English and Creative Writing in the UK, and then taught English as a foreign language teacher in Asia for several years, Aaron began to be exposed to financial transactions, especially foreign exchange transactions, more than ten years ago. Since then, Aaron has discovered trading loopholes and accumulated a lot of knowledge, obtaining CMT (Chartered Market Technician) level 1 and 2. He has since been awarded CFTe (Certified Financial Technician).

1.When did you first start trading? And when did you want to be an analyst?

Aaron Hill:I began trading at the age of 24 and have been involved in the financial markets for 12 years. I actually started my career dabbling in the stock market as the gentleman who introduced me to the colourful world of trading is primarily a stock trader who trades largely Australian equities.
As most experienced market players recognise, a glaring difference exists between a ‘trader’ and an ‘analyst’. I thought if I was a good analyst, I automatically become a good trader—how wrong I was. I completely sidestepped the psychological element of trading, a mistake many make unfortunately.
So, to answer your question in regards to when I wanted to become an analyst, it was essentially from the very beginning as I was immediately hooked on anything to do with the financial markets.

2.What is your starting capital for trading? What is the current size of your trading funds? What is the situation of the first profit and the first loss?

Aaron Hill:When I was actively trading, my largest account was 20,000 GBP.
Over the years I was involved, I managed to consistently increase my account year on year. I was never a trader who focused on weekly, monthly or quarterly returns. At one point, however, I was handling an account size of 60,000 GBP. Though, to be clear, this amount was a collection of deposits and returns.

3. What is your biggest profit and loss in trading?

Aaron Hill:My largest profit was a trade I remember clearly, returning 9 R. R represents Initial Risk. Therefore, it was essentially 9 times the initial risk, or profit/loss / initial risk. This was a trade that just kept going. I enjoyed catching large winners when presented as I was particularly fond of trailing stops.
I experienced my largest loss in the first few years of trading. It was on GBP/USD. Given I was still relatively new to trading, I thought I knew better than my trading plan (which I spent months perfecting). I entered long on a Friday, approximately 4 hours prior to non-farm payrolls, and the trade initially went in favour. However, price entered a phase of consolidation (common before large news events), and had not reached my initial price target. Instead of reducing risk to breakeven, as per my trading plan, I widened my protective stop to give the market ‘some room to breathe’. I am sure you’re able to guess what happened next. Price not only tumbled lower, it gapped past my stop and I lost nearly 1,500 GBP in the space of a few seconds. Not a pleasant day at the office.

4. We heard you have obtained a Level 2 certificate of CFTe and CMT, and have a lot of theoretical knowledge of trading. Do you prefer technical analysis or fundamental analysis? Which trading instruments are you good at? Can you share more details about your trading strategy or trading skill with us?

Aaron Hill:I have passed levels 1 and 2 of the CMT program—Chartered Market Technician, and was awarded the CFTe as a result. I am also in the process of studying for CMT level 3, and, with a little bit of luck, I should have my CMT designation early 2022. I also have plans to tackle the CFA program next as I believe in education.
I would like to think I have accumulated a lot of theory over the years. But as any trader or analyst will tell you, this business has no finish line. We never stop learning; there is plenty I have yet to learn.
I prefer the technical side of trading; it is where I am most comfortable. Still, I have been slowly learning fundamentals as I want to offer more of a complete service to clients.
In terms of trading instruments, I feel I am most comfortable with price action, multi-timeframe analysis, and, what I like to refer to as chart psychology. As for my trading strategies, I focus on two. The first is through traditional technical analysis. The latter is more complex and concentrates on the position of stop losses. If a trader understands the general psychology of traders—the way they think and ultimately position themselves on charts—my belief is they’re able to take advantage of their mistakes.

5. As you mentioned in your profile that you are currently doing some in-depth daily market analysis involving the use of advanced technical concepts. What do you think is the core factor to be a good analyst?

Aaron Hill:Analytical and research skills are obviously important. A deep understanding of the markets is vital, particularly the markets of focus for analysis.
Also, you have to be comfortable with technology. Ultimately, analysts are there to help clients navigate markets. So, having good communication skills, both verbally and written, is essential.

6. When you first came into contact with trading, which trading books helped you the most? Can you recommend it to readers?

Aaron Hill:The first book I ever read, and was what first hooked me, was: Trend Trading: A seven step approach to success, by Daryl Guppy.
However, I wish I had first concentrated more on the psychological side of trading before deep-diving into other concepts. A book I am particularly fond of is: Trading in the Zone, by the late Mark Douglas.

7. In your career as an analyst, when is the most memorable time you successfully predicted the trend of the market? What impressed you the most? What was the situation at that time?

Aaron Hill:In response to the question: when is the most memorable time you successfully predicted the trend of the market? it is difficult to answer since trend is relative. I have never been one to try and predict market trends, I try to be more ‘reactive’ if that makes sense.

8.Which one do you think is more important while trading, psychology or technology? Can you share your own opinions?

Aaron Hill:Psychology is a key attribute for consistently profitable trading. Without a handle on your mindset, trading any methodology, irrespective of performance metrics, is challenging.

9. What is the biggest difficulty encountered by newbies? How to overcome it?

Aaron Hill:I think there are multiple challenges new traders face. Two, of course, is understanding the psychological element in trading, and identifying market dynamics.
Further to the above, I find newer traders are often caught in a brutal cycle of changing/altering methods. When a method loses once, twice, or three times, which any trader worth their salt will tell you is perfectly normal, they simply shelve that strategy and look for another. Thorough back testing is required to prove its effectiveness.
Having a mentor helps, as he or she will shorten their learning curve exponentially.

10. What will you do when a loss occurs in a transaction? Do you usually set a stop loss for trading? What do you think of stop loss?

Aaron Hill:I know of some traders who trade with what’s known as a mental stop, which means essentially pre-determining a level in the market they will exit their position. For me, however, I would always work with a hard protective stop-loss order to prevent account ruin.

11. In your mind, what personality characteristics should a good trader have?

Aaron Hill:The openness to learn and absorb new information is important. I also know patience is a key personality characteristic, as well as having a healthy determination to succeed no matter what’s thrown your way.

12. Does the trading work affect your family life? How do you deal with the balance between the two?

Aaron Hill:When I first began learning this business, I would spend at least 5-7 hours each day studying markets and price action, while holding down a full-time job. As you can imagine, aside from a little free time at the weekends, this would leave little time for other activities.
Balancing family and trading life is challenging. You must have the support of your loved ones.
You may find setting a study schedule helpful. A timetable you agree with family when your focus is on the markets.

13. You are very good at analyzing forex trading transactions. Can you tell us your views on several major currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD in 2021?

Aaron Hill:I think it is best I focus on three major currency pairs I follow on a daily basis, taking analysis from the monthly timeframe: EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY.
EUR/USD has been entrenched within an uptrend since early 2020, though echoed a consolidation phase in 2021 thus far. Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the $1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price breached major trendline resistance on the monthly timeframe, taken from the high $1.6038, in July 2020. Therefore, higher levels could be on the cards, long term.
AUD/USD, since the beginning of 2021, buyers and sellers have been squaring off south of monthly trendline resistance (prior support – $0.4776 low) and supply from $0.8303-0.8082. That was, of course, until the recent one-sided decline, movement throwing light on monthly support at $0.7394. Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [$1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking $0.8135 (January high [2018]).
USD/JPY, following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and cut through descending resistance, etched from the high ¥118.66. Although April finished lower by 1.3 percent and snapped the three-month winning streak, May (+0.2 percent) held the breached descending resistance, echoing potential support for the month of June. Therefore, longer-term, higher prices could be in the offing.
(Special reminder: The opinions of the guests in the article do not represent the position of this journal, nor do they constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and traders must be cautious!)


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Short Comments

  • 学习啦!经验之谈啊,如果交易者了解交易的一般心理,他们的思维方式以及最终在图表上定位自己的方式,我相信他们能够利用自己的错误,并不断总结出对他们自己而言正确的经验。

  • Traders can obtain Level 2 certificates of CFTe and CMT, which is really amazing!

  • 好有型的交易牛人啊,这是我见过最帅的。


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